Are the winds of political change blowing in Armenia?

As I have previously written, I have not wanted to get too political on this blog, not least of which because I am no authority on the subject: I do not follow Armenian politics in any significant way, and were it not for recently having been in Armenia for a month, I would not have anything to say at all. But I was, and so I am following up on what just happened in Armenia yesterday (the dismissal of the head of the Armed Forces + protests) a bit more closely than I ordinarily would, and will offer my own colour commentary of what's been going on.

Yesterday, the Armenian military demanded that Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan resign. As a result, the head of the armed forces Onik Gasparyan was accused of mounting a coup, and was promptly dismissed by the PM. There were demonstrations for and against this action: from what I read, equal numbers of people (about 20,000 each) descended in the streets: there were a few scuffles but it remained mostly non-violent. Not being there in person, I cannot confirm any of this: and I say this because numbers can so easily be inflated, and of course this is not only the case for Armenia (one of the most famous recent examples being the controversy about Donald Trump's 2017 inflated inauguration crowd size). And from the little experience I had while in Armenia, opinions were much easier to find than factual information (I mean, again, I'm sure it's not much different elsewhere, including in Canada...)

Nikol Pashinyan swept to power through a peaceful revolution, sometimes referred to as Armenia's Velvet Revolution, on a wave of pro-economy and anti-corruption sentiment. Several protests and marches were held between late March and early May 2018. Pashinyan's imaginative approach awakened a generation of Armenians who were dying for change. Several months later, in December 2018, he called for snap elections and his My Step Alliance party won a landslide election (over 70%), giving his party a majority of seats as well, 83 of the 132 in the National Assembly. As I have mentioned several times in previous posts, and as most readers already know, the handling of the Sept-Nov 2020 war by PM Pashinyan has been seen by nearly everyone as badly executed, and even amateurish, with some even calling him a traitor. It is the main reason that a disparate coalition of opponents who have been out sniffing for blood for months have an impact, even though Pashinyan's support hasn't exactly disappeared. Not least of which is the Bureau of the ARF/ՀՅԴ (the Dashnaktsutyun/Դաշնակցութիւն), the biggest Armenian Diasporan opposition to Pashinyan's government, a position which can clearly be read about in their press, the Armenian Weekly, and Montreal's Horizon. Full disclosure: as I have mentioned recently, I was raised in an ARF milieu.

From what I heard while in Armenia, Pashinyan's personal popularity has plummeted (pardon the alliteration), and opposition is fierce, but no credible alternative has retained the imagination of the people. Pashinyan retains the legitimacy of the people still, and the opposition forces have been able to muster some noise but little fanfare. Judging from anecdotal observation, many I spoke to who could be termed "average Armenians", mainly in Yeghegnadzor, seemed to still support Pashinyan, and appreciated how the economy seemed to be on the mend under his watch, that taxes were actually collected and used for projects such as building better roads, and generally speaking, corruption was on the wane.

I don't know enough about Armenian news sources to suggest any with great confidence, though I have been listening to podcasts from EVN Report and find it is fairly unbiased (note: Editor in Chief Maria Titizian is from Toronto). They offer a detailed timeline of what happened yesterday, and this opinion piece may be interesting for some. For reading suggestions from non-Armenian sources, this Al Jazeera article is fairly detailed and includes several news clips as well, and this one offers a useful timeline of the Pashinyan era. This BBC article is fairly detailed as well.

I'm very glad that there were only a few scuffles between opposition protestors, but I'm not sure this will last. Those I spoke to presented views for, against, and everything in between regarding the current government, but those at the extremes seemed fairly entrenched, and tensions are fairly high now. There have been calls for an election, I think this will be the case soon. I hope so, and think (and very much hope) that it will be peaceful. Also, and disturbingly, I'll mention that the clip I saw including chants of Ni-Kol, Ni-Kol somehow sounded to my ears like the Nazi Salute (Sieg-Heil, Sieg-Heil): no comparisons intended there, of course, it's just an observation. Lastly, I'll mention that few in the large crowds were wearing masks, of course, as was pretty much the case throughout my tenure there. As I have mentioned ad nauseum.

A final thought: I have heard many opinions about what would help Armenia going forward, all kinds of ideas that people are convinced are better than what is on offer. All I'll say is that I wouldn't want to have the Armenian PM's job, which seems impossibly hard, especially these days. As someone who has worked on Parliament Hill for over 12 years, allow me to say that change or improvements are much easier to suggest than to implement, and that it's always easier to complain than to rule and make final decisions. I am not taking sides here, just pointing out that it's extremely difficult, anywhere, to find that middle ground that pleases most people. Democracy is great, and lobbying and pressure is a normal part of it: what I worry about are the wealthy and powerful people behind the scenes pulling on invisible (and sometimes visible) strings.

Three of the people I spoke to in Armenia who gave me instructive, if cautious, information about the state of the country and who are involved in government were Sara Anjargolian, Chief of Staff of Diasporan Affairs, Member of Parliament Hamo Danielyan, and former Armenian Ambassador to Canada (and currently a Director at the Foreign Ministry Department), Armen Yeganian. I will keep the content of those conversations to myself, but will say that they definitely had an impact on me, as did conversations with people all around. I will however add one picture I took in front of the National Assembly of Armenia as today's picture: let's hope there won't be any storming of the place, again...